Oil Prices Soar as Analysts Predict Persistently Impaired Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices have been trading at their highest levels in six weeks, reaching $100.93 on Wednesday morning.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are revising their forecasts upward, citing a 'new normal' in which the Strait of Hormuz is neither fully closed nor fully open, but persistently impaired.

The disruption around the strait is seen as a lasting feature of the global energy landscape, with HSBC Global Investment Research noting that markets are adjusting to this new reality.

Goldman Sachs analysts cited a 'new assumption' that Mideast shipping disruptions continue into 2027 when revising their forecasts upward, while Bank of America raised its baseline forecast to $83 for the second half of 2026 and $75 next year.

The banks caution that things could get much more expensive if skirmishes curbing oil flows continue into the end of the year, with Brent potentially trading at $95-$120.