Oil Prices Soar as JPMorgan Abandons Baseline View Amid Iran Conflict
JPMorgan Chase has revised its baseline view on oil markets due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. The bank's analysts no longer have a clear understanding of how to model the endgame for the conflict, which has led to increased uncertainty in oil prices.
The conflict has disrupted approximately 10 million barrels per day of crude oil supply, causing oil prices to rise above $100 per barrel. Gasoline prices have reached $4.37 per gallon, while US diesel prices hit an all-time high of $6.31 per gallon heading into winter, the period of peak seasonal demand.
JPMorgan estimates that global inventories of crude and refined products have fallen by about 555 million barrels since the conflict began, representing only around one-third of the decline the bank had projected earlier this year.