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Oil Prices Soar, Rate Hike Odds Rise Amid US-Iran Tensions

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International oil prices surged after the US and Iran engaged in renewed military clashes for the first time in about a month. The clashes sharply eroded expectations for normalization in the Strait of Hormuz, with the risk of disruption rising in the chokepoint through which a significant portion of global crude supply passes.

Oil prices reacted immediately, with WTI closing up 2.83% at $85.76 per barrel and Brent crude rising 2.71% to $90.49 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The oil price spike combined with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to push the probability of a September rate hike to 65.9%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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