Oil Prices Stabilize as G7 Releases Stocks and Middle East Exports Rise
Oil prices saw modest gains on Monday (Oct 5, 2026) amid volatile trading, as Middle East crude exports climbed and the Group of Seven (G7) countries announced plans to release additional oil reserves. Brent crude futures rose by 5 cents to US$102.30 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 49 cents to US$90.62 a barrel. The fluctuations came despite a G7 agreement to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, following pressure from US President Donald Trump.
Despite attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern crude exports surpassed pre-war levels in the last week of September, according to shipping data. However, the supply backdrop remains tight, with ICE gasoil futures surging over 4% to US$1,409 a metric ton. PVM Oil associate analyst Tamas Varga attributed this rise to the suspension of Chinese product exports, exacerbating the supply crunch in the Far East.
Geopolitical tensions continued to loom, with Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warning that crude and refined fuel supplies would likely remain stretched. He suggested that refilling global stockpiles after emergency withdrawals could take up to two years. Meanwhile, the Houthis claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites, though Saudi Arabia did not confirm these attacks. Yemeni government forces also attacked Houthi positions near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait.
OPEC+ postponed a review of 2027 oil output quotas due to disruptions caused by the Iran war, while Saudi Aramco unexpectedly cut November crude oil prices for Asia to six-year lows. Additionally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine would continue targeting Russian oil refineries, potentially further tightening refined product supplies.