Oil prices saw significant volatility on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as traders reacted to mixed signals from US-Iran peace talks. Brent crude opened at $104.27 a barrel in early Asian trading, after closing below $104 the previous day. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered near $97 a barrel, following a $5 range swing on Tuesday.
The price fluctuations come after a sharp reversal earlier in the week, with Brent plunging 7.6% on Monday, the steepest fall in over three months, following indications that Washington and Tehran were willing to engage in talks after nine months of conflict. On Tuesday, Brent briefly climbed to $107 before easing back.
Diplomatic uncertainty fueled the market's choppy trade. A Bloomberg report suggested both countries were reviewing fresh proposals from mediators, but Iran's national security chief dampened optimism by calling the US response "not satisfactory" on X. The talks follow weeks of escalating tensions, including Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and threats from US President Donald Trump.
Trump has since adopted a more restrained tone, telling the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran. "We're locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it," he said. Physical market dynamics also weighed on prices, with Gulf crude exports recovering and supply outpacing demand for the first time since July.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser announced plans to maximize output this quarter, lifting shipments from near-prewar levels. Samiran Chakraborty, chief economist at Citi India, predicted the conflict could end by late 2026 or early 2027, potentially easing shipping disruptions and trimming freight costs. However, Geoffrey Dennis cautioned against expecting a lasting slide in oil prices, suggesting Brent could stay between $95 and $115 unless peace efforts advance significantly.