Oil Sands Shift from Growth to Discipline as Alberta Aims for More Production

Alberta's oil sands have seen tremendous growth over the past decade, with production increasing by roughly 41% to approximately 3.56 million barrels per day in 2024. However, the next chapter for this region is likely to be defined by a balance between growth and discipline.

The industry has shifted its focus from building large greenfield projects to extracting more production from existing facilities through debottlenecking, improved maintenance practices, and technological innovations. For example, Suncor plans to add approximately 100,000 barrels per day of upstream production by 2028 while targeting a US$5-per-barrel reduction in its corporate WTI breakeven price.

Syncrude is also prioritizing reliability over simply producing more barrels, with Andrew Rosser stating that the company's goal is 'not just mining; we are building a legacy for our community and our country.'

In-situ operations have become increasingly favored due to their lower costs and higher cash flow per barrel. By 2040, Suncor expects approximately 60% of its oil sands bitumen production to come from in-situ operations.