Oman Backs OPEC+'s Cautious Output Strategy Ahead of Key Meeting

OPEC+ is preparing for a key meeting that could reshape production quotas and baseline calculations for all member countries. According to Omani energy analyst Ali al Riyami, Oman is expected to support a cautious, phased approach to future oil production increases.

The producer alliance has implemented production increases for the sixth consecutive month, adding around 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month as part of the gradual unwinding of voluntary supply cuts. This means the tranche of about 1.065 million barrels per day has now largely been completed, while another tranche of roughly two million barrels per day remains.

Attention is shifting to an important OPEC+ meeting expected in the coming months, where member countries will review the group's production quota framework and the baseline production levels used to determine each country's output allocation. Al Riyami expects OPEC+ to temporarily pause further production increases until agreement is reached on a revised methodology for calculating production quotas across the alliance.

The analyst believes there is a direct connection between restoring the remaining voluntary cuts and the resolution of longstanding disagreements over production baselines. He notes that Iraq, before its withdrawal from OPEC+, and Kazakhstan are among countries seeking adjustments to their baseline production levels.