OPEC Completes Rollback of Voluntary Cuts, Eyes Potential Surplus

OPEC+ has approved an increase in oil production quotas for September of approximately 188,000 barrels per day (b/d), completing the rollback of voluntary supply cuts introduced in 2023. This marks the sixth consecutive monthly increase by the group this year.

The decision was made during a virtual meeting on August 2, 2026, and was agreed upon by seven core members of the alliance: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The move completes the unwinding of the 1.65-million b/d voluntary supply cut originally agreed in 2023.

OPEC+ sources cited by Reuters suggest that further increases may be paused starting in the fourth quarter as the alliance assesses market conditions after finishing the restoration of the 2023 cuts. A separate layer of approximately 2 million b/d in cuts, dating to 2022, remains in place and is expected to continue through the end of 2026.

Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon stated that OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts and now faces the challenge of managing a potential surplus as export flows normalize. 'Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes,' Leon said.