OPEC+ Completes Rollback of Voluntary Cuts with September Oil Hike

OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production quotas by around 188,000 barrels per day in September, completing the rollback of voluntary cuts. This move is seen as a major development in the global oil market, but its impact may be limited due to ongoing export disruptions caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars.

The increase in oil production quotas will come from core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. This move marks the completion of a phased rollback of 1.65 million bpd supply cuts originally agreed upon in 2023.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, believes that OPEC+ may pause output increases for the fourth quarter due to limited market impact. He notes that the group has little incentive to rush into further supply changes and predicts a base case of a fourth-quarter pause while they prepare for 2027 quota negotiations.