OPEC+ Completes Voluntary Cut Rollback with September Quota Hike

OPEC+ has approved an increase in oil production quotas for September, marking the completion of a phased rollback of voluntary output cuts. The group agreed to raise production by around 188,000 barrels per day from September, finishing the unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed upon in 2023.

The increase is largely symbolic, as previous OPEC+ hikes have had little impact on the market due to export disruptions caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars. The group's statement made no mention of future output changes, but sources suggest that a pause in production increases for the fourth quarter is likely.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, said that OPEC+ has 'little incentive to rush into further supply changes' now that the restoration campaign is complete. The group is currently reviewing its members' oil production capacity ahead of 2027 quota negotiations, which may be contentious due to differing capacity levels among member countries.

OPEC+ still has in place a layer of output cuts dating back to 2022, which will remain until the end of this year. These cuts apply to most group members and total around 2 million bpd.