OPEC+ Completes Voluntary Output Cuts with September Oil Hike

OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by around 188,000 barrels per day from September, completing the rollback of voluntary output cuts that were implemented in response to export disruptions caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars. The decision was made at a meeting of core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

The increase is part of a phased rollout that began earlier this year, with successive monthly hikes remaining largely on paper due to ongoing export disruptions. The September hike completes the unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023.

OPEC+ sources had suggested before the meeting that the group might pause output increases for the fourth quarter, but the statement made no reference to what might be agreed for the last three months of this year. Analysts believe a pause is still possible, with Rystad's Jorge Leon saying OPEC+ has 'little incentive to rush into further supply changes.'

OPEC+ is currently reviewing its members' oil production capacity ahead of setting 2027 quotas, which could lead to potentially difficult talks over new production levels. The group also expressed concern about attacks on energy assets during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, saying they are expensive and time-consuming to repair.