OPEC+ Holds November Oil Output Targets Steady Amid Conflict Disruptions

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production targets for November, marking the second consecutive month of unchanged output levels. The alliance, which includes key producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, made the decision during a virtual meeting on October 4. This follows a six-month period of planned production increases, during which these countries reversed 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts introduced in 2023.

Despite raising production targets, actual output has lagged behind due to disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Gulf producers have seen export fluctuations, with flows ranging from 60% to 80% of normal levels. Analyst Giovanni Staunovo from UBS noted that the market remains tight because actual OPEC+ output is still below production ceilings, even with improved flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices have remained above $100 a barrel, up from around $73 before the conflict began in late February.

Additionally, OPEC has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 for the fifth consecutive month, citing weaker consumption growth due to high energy prices and slowing economic activity. The group has, however, raised its growth forecast for 2027. OPEC+ is also reviewing the production capacity of individual members before setting new output quotas for 2027, a process complicated by war-related disruptions. The alliance will meet again on November 1 to review market conditions and decide production policy for December.