OPEC+ Holds November Oil Output Targets Steady Amid Market Tightness

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its current oil production targets for November, following a meeting on October 4, 2026. The seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, agreed to keep output levels unchanged, aligning with market expectations. This decision comes amidst ongoing disruptions caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has significantly reduced export levels in the Gulf region to 60-80% of normal capacity.

Despite a slight improvement in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, actual production remains well below the group's targets. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that the market remains tight, with Brent crude prices staying above $100 a barrel, up from around $73 before the Iran war began in late February 2026. The group's planned output capacity review has been delayed due to uncertainty over future production potential, complicating plans to adjust quotas for 2027.

OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production targets throughout 2026, but most of these hikes have not been realized due to the Middle East conflict. In August, the seven core members produced 25 million barrels per day, roughly 5 million barrels below pre-war levels. The group still has about 2 million barrels per day of output cuts in place, with any changes to production levels unlikely before 2027. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for November 1, 2026.