OPEC+ Holds November Oil Output Targets Steady Amid Market Tightness

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its current oil production targets for November, aligning with market expectations that significant policy changes are unlikely until next year. The decision was made by seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, during a brief online meeting on Sunday.

The group's output levels remain well below their official targets due to ongoing export disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran. Despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf producers have been operating at 60% to 80% of normal export levels in recent months. Analyst Giovanni Staunovo from UBS noted that while production ceilings stayed unchanged, actual output remains below quota, keeping the oil market tight.

Brent crude prices have remained above $100 a barrel, up from about $73 before the Iran war began in late February. The conflict has also delayed the group's output capacity review, which is crucial for determining 2027 production quotas. OPEC+ has been raising output targets throughout 2026, but most increases have not materialized due to the Middle East conflict.

The seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, but still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels. The group still has about 2 million bpd of output cuts in place, with any changes to production levels unlikely before 2027. A separate OPEC+ ministerial group also met on Sunday to review market conditions.