OPEC+ Holds Oil Output Targets Steady Amid Middle East Supply Strains

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its current oil production targets for November, despite ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East. The seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, made this decision during an online meeting. They cited concerns over attacks on energy infrastructure and threats to international shipping routes as key reasons for keeping quotas unchanged.

The market remains tight, with benchmark Brent crude prices hovering above $100 per barrel. While oil prices dipped briefly after the Group of Seven nations agreed to release diesel reserves, they have since rebounded. Export disruptions due to the conflict in the Middle East continue to limit actual supply, keeping the market under pressure.

Despite raising output targets for much of 2026, most of those increases have not materialized due to the ongoing conflict. Gulf producers are currently pumping well below their quotas, with exports fluctuating between 60-80% of normal levels. The seven core members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, still roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war levels in February.

The Iran war has also delayed OPEC+’s output capacity review, which is crucial for setting 2027 quotas. The seven-nation sub-group will meet again on November 1, with the full ministerial meeting scheduled for November 29. Additional uncertainties include Russia’s production levels, which are below its OPEC+ target due to Ukrainian drone strikes, and the UAE’s exit from OPEC+ in May.