OPEC+ Holds Output Targets Brent Crude Hovers Near $101

Brent crude prices hovered near $101.50 per barrel on Monday, October 5, 2026, showing a slight decline from Friday’s close of $102.25. The OPEC+ group, which includes key producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to maintain their November output targets at 31.01 million barrels per day, a decision that had little immediate impact on prices. The market is now balancing two major factors: the G7’s planned release of 100 million barrels from emergency reserves, which increases supply, and a new military offensive in Yemen, which introduces geopolitical risks.

The G7’s reserve release, coordinated by the International Energy Agency, is expected to add roughly 830,000 barrels per day to the market over four months. This supply boost is weighing on prices, counterbalanced by concerns over potential disruptions in the Middle East. Yemen’s government launched a full-scale offensive against the Houthis, who claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, although no damage has been confirmed.

Analysts are watching key price levels, with a bearish scenario targeting $98 if supply concerns dominate, and a bullish scenario aiming for $107 if geopolitical tensions escalate. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for November 1, where further decisions on production levels will be reviewed.

For now, Brent crude remains in a narrow range, reflecting the market’s cautious approach as it navigates between supply increases and potential risks.