OPEC+ Holds Steady on November Oil Output Targets

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production targets for November, as announced following a recent virtual meeting. The seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, confirmed the decision, which aligns with market expectations that further adjustments are unlikely until next year.

Despite rising oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, production levels remain significantly below target due to ongoing export disruptions from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Analyst Giovanni Staunovo from UBS noted that while production ceilings stayed unchanged, actual output is well below quota, keeping the oil market tight.

Brent crude prices have remained above $100 a barrel, a notable increase from around $73 before the Iran war began in late February. However, recent output hikes have largely been on paper, with actual production lagging due to the Middle East conflict. The seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, still roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels.

The Iran war has also delayed the group’s output capacity review, which is essential for determining 2027 production quotas. With about 2 million bpd of output cuts still in place, any changes to output levels are unlikely before 2027. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for November 1.