OPEC+ Keeps November Oil Output Targets Unchanged Amid Iran War Disruptions

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its oil production targets for November, despite ongoing disruptions caused by the war involving Iran. The group, which includes key members like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, held a virtual meeting over the weekend to discuss the matter. Nigeria was notably absent from the meeting, as it continues to focus on restoring its production capacity rather than participating in additional voluntary cuts.

The decision to keep production levels unchanged aligns with market expectations, as the alliance seeks to manage market conditions amid the conflict. Actual output remains significantly below targets due to export disruptions in the Gulf region, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite some improvement in flows, several Gulf producers are still operating well below normal levels.

Data from OPEC indicates that the seven core producers pumped about 25 million barrels per day in August, up from July but still around 5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. This supply constraint has helped keep Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel, a sharp rise from around $73 before the conflict began in late February. The tight market conditions have also complicated OPEC+'s plans for determining production allocations for 2027.

The alliance is conducting a review of members' sustainable production capacity, but the process has been delayed due to the ongoing conflict. With uncertainty surrounding future production potential, significant changes to individual production quotas are unlikely before 2027. The seven producers are set to meet again on November 1 to review market conditions and outlook.