OPEC+ Maintains November Oil Output Targets Amid Supply Disruptions

The seven core members of OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, have decided to keep their oil output targets unchanged for November. This decision was widely anticipated and suggests that no further changes to the output policy are likely before next year. Brent crude prices remain above $100 a barrel, a significant increase from around $73 before the Iran war began in late February.

Despite the stable quota decision, actual production in the Gulf region has been severely disrupted, with exports fluctuating between 60% and 80% of normal levels due to the ongoing conflict. The seven core members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 barrels per day from July, but still roughly 5 million barrels per day below their pre-war production levels. Analyst Giovanni Staunovo from UBS noted that output levels remain well below quota, keeping the oil market tight.

OPEC+ has been raising production targets throughout 2026, but the conflict has limited the impact of these increases on actual supply. The group still has around 2 million barrels per day of output cuts in place. The disruption has made it difficult to assess members’ production capacities, delaying a review that is crucial for determining 2027 production quotas. This means changes to output are unlikely before next year.

The next major OPEC+ policy decision is expected at a full ministerial meeting on November 29, when the group will address its production policy for next year. The seven core members will meet online again on November 1 to consider production plans for December. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee reiterated concerns over attacks on energy infrastructure and their impact on market stability.