OPEC+ Pauses Planned Output Hikes After September

OPEC+, an alliance of oil-producing countries, is expected to pause its planned output hikes after September. According to sources familiar with the matter, this decision would keep around 2 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) of OPEC+ production cuts in place beyond September.

The group's current core producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are expected to meet on August 2 and likely approve an output increase of about 188,000 bbl/d for September. This adjustment would complete the phased reversal of 1.65 mmbbl/d in voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023.

However, sources told Reuters that no additional production increases are expected for the remainder of 2026, although no final decision has yet been made. Market fundamentals will also shape OPEC+'s next steps, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting a potential oil surplus in 2027 depending on whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize.