OPEC+'s Grip on Oil Market Erodes Amid Iran War Disruptions

The Iran war has significantly weakened OPEC+'s grip on the oil market. Six months into the conflict, the group is struggling to influence oil prices due to prolonged supply disruptions and the closure of key export routes.

OPEC+ accounted for about 40% of global oil production in July, down from over 48% before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February. The United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC in May contributed to a decline of around four to five percentage points.

The alliance's seven core producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, represented only about one-quarter of global oil output in July. This highlights the extent to which OPEC+'s influence has waned. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further constrained the group's ability to adjust supplies.