OPEC+ Stripped of Pricing Power Amid Iran War Disruptions

The OPEC+ alliance has lost its grip on the oil market due to the ongoing Iran war, with its global market share falling to 40% from 48%. The conflict has shut a major export route for Middle Eastern oil and damaged energy infrastructure across several OPEC countries.

Roughly four to five percentage points of this decline stem from the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC in May. The alliance's core group of seven producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, accounted for just 25% of global oil output in July.

The war has stripped OPEC+ of its ability to quickly raise or lower supply due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical export route for Saudi Arabia and fellow members Iraq and Kuwait. This shift in market dynamics is evident in the fact that Chinese crude imports have emerged as one of 2026's dominant market forces, helping balance oil supply amid what analysts describe as the worst-ever disruption to global crude flows.