OPEC+ Supply Stance and Logistics Challenges Shape Oil and Gas Markets

Brent crude oil fundamentals have shifted from a supply shortage to a logistics challenge. Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded in late September, averaging around 18.5 million barrels per day by October 1, nearing pre-war levels. However, tanker attacks, higher insurance costs, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to hinder oil flow. The G7's decision to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves has eased immediate supply concerns, while OPEC+'s decision to maintain current output levels has reduced the risk of a policy-driven supply increase.

On the natural gas front, U.S. production and LNG exports have kept fundamentals balanced. As of October 1, working natural gas in storage was at 3.415 billion cubic feet, 3.9% lower than last year but 2.4% above the five-year average. July saw record average gas withdrawals at 137 billion cubic feet per day, and September LNG exports averaged 10.9 million metric tons.

Technically, natural gas has recovered to $3.03, reclaiming the $3.00 level. The next upside test is at $3.10, with resistance levels at $3.20 and $3.27. Support levels are at $2.95, $2.86, and $2.79. The RSI has improved to the 50-line, suggesting near-term momentum has strengthened.

WTI crude oil is holding at $88.54, with $92.90 as the key recovery test. Brent crude is trading near $101.41, with resistance at $103.89 and support at $98.71. A break above $103.89 could push prices toward $107.06 and $110.08, while a break below $98.71 would shift the bias to bearish.