Pakistan's Economy Takes Breather Amid Oil Price Crisis
The ongoing war in the Gulf region has sent oil prices soaring, but Pakistan's economy is surprisingly cushioned against its impact. Brent oil prices have averaged $99 per barrel, while petroleum product prices are even higher.
A major reason for this resiliency is that the government has been fully passing on the increased costs to consumers and charging the full levy. Additionally, the absence of RLNG supply from Qatar has proven to be a blessing in disguise, saving Pakistan $1.5 billion in import bills.
Rising oil prices would typically lead to a surge in trade deficits, but this hasn't happened in March-August 2026. The current account posted a marginal surplus of $49 million compared to a surplus of $586 million during the same period in 2025 when oil prices averaged $69 per barrel.
The stagnation of goods exports remains a concern, with no new sectors emerging as major contributors. Exports are increasing due to government incentives, but this growth is reliant on support measures rather than organic expansion.