Permian Basin Natural Gas Price Rebounds, but Negative Pricing Looms

Permian Basin natural gas pricing has rebounded into positive territory after spending most of the first half of the year below zero, according to NGI's daily Waha price. The price reached a high of $2.405/MMBtu in early August.

New pipeline capacity has allowed once siloed gas to finally move to market, but recent flow data from Entropic Analytics suggests that a potential return to negative pricing is still possible. The data shows that eastbound egress from the Permian has averaged 0.37 Bcf/d year-to-date, with flows sinking to 0.13 Bcf/d in late April when Waha spot prices bottomed near negative $9.00.

The link between flow and price proved true again in late July when both the flow and spot prices eased in tandem. With additional takeaway capacity now flowing, including the GCX expansion and Matterhorn Express Pipeline, the Permian pricing has flipped a switch, but delays to other pipelines pose a risk. Blackcomb Pipeline's 2.50 Bcf/d startup is commissioning and line packing, with full commercial capacity expected in 4Q2026.