Permian Basin Natural Gas Prices Fluctuate Amid Tight Pipeline Headroom

Permian Basin natural gas prices have bounced back into positive territory after spending most of the first half of the year below zero, according to recent data from NGI's Entropic Analytics. The daily Waha price reached a high of $2.405/MMBtu earlier this month, but experts warn that negative pricing is still possible due to tight pipeline headroom.

New pipeline capacity has allowed Permian gas to move to market, but the additional takeaway capacity has only alleviated pressure on prices temporarily. The GCX expansion is now flowing, and Matterhorn Express Pipeline is operational, but delays to other pipelines in the works pose a risk. Blackcomb Pipeline's 2.50 Bcf/d startup has slipped to 4Q2026, and Hugh Brinson is not expected to run full until spring.

This vulnerability is already being priced into the market, with NGI's Forward Look showing Waha fixed prices sliding to around $1.340 in October before firming to about $3.34 by January 2027. However, forward data shows fixed prices sinking below $1.00 again by March 2028 and holding barely over $1.00 for the remainder of that spring.