Persian Gulf Oil Exports Rebound, Limiting Price Gains

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to roughly two-thirds of their pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. This surge in shipments is estimated to be around 15-16 million barrels per day (bpd) and could limit oil price gains even if the Middle East conflict persists.

The investment bank noted that despite the recovery, total volumes remain approximately 7-8 million bpd below February levels. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz alone are likely close to the U.S. estimate of 8-10 million bpd, and producers and shippers are adapting to the conflict by using dark crossings and ship-to-ship transfers.

Qatar and Kuwait have boosted their crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz to 70% of pre-war levels following the United Arab Emirates in using shuttle services and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. These measures have helped maintain oil flows, albeit at reduced rates compared to February.