Portugal Raises Regulated Electricity Tariffs by €5/MWh Amid Rising Gas Prices

Portugal's energy regulator, ERSE, has announced an in-year revision of the energy component of regulated electricity tariffs. This decision follows a gap between the forecast supply cost for the last-resort supplier and its updated estimate. The regulator states that rising natural gas prices linked to the war between Iran and the United States largely explain this gap.

The energy component will rise by €0.005/kWh, or €5/MWh, starting October 1, 2026. This increase is triggered by a quarterly mechanism that compares the forecast purchase cost with an updated estimate. According to ERSE, the new forecast of the last-resort supplier's procurement cost shows a gap of €17.59/MWh compared with the forecast built into tariffs in force through September.

The revision will produce an estimated effect of about 2.7% on the average monthly bill for most regulated domestic customers. The regulator notes that this impact is intensified during a period of seasonally lower renewable contribution to Portugal's power system, but hydropower and wind remain the country's top two renewable sources.

The measure affects 779,000 customers, or about 4.6% of total electricity consumption in Portugal, according to June 2026 data cited by ERSE. Free-market suppliers retain their commercial autonomy and are not required to pass on this tariff revision.