Putin's Port Blockade: Choking Ukraine's Grain Exports

Russia's recent campaign against Ukraine's Black Sea ports has caused significant disruptions to grain exports and export revenue, exposing a shortage of air-defense interceptors. The attacks have forced shipowners to suspend port calls due to soaring insurance premiums.

The port closures come as Ukraine's farmers prepare for the harvest season, which accounts for 60% of the country's goods exports. Russia's goal is to choke off a crucial source of foreign currency for Ukraine and boost its international negotiating leverage by inflicting pain on major grain importers in Africa and Asia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes that higher food prices will persuade Ukraine's trade partners, particularly in Europe, to press Kyiv to de-escalate its attacks inside Russia. However, European support for Ukraine remains strong, and governments suffering from higher prices are likely to blame Moscow rather than Kyiv.