Rabobank Raises European Gas Price Forecasts Amid Hormuz Disruptions

Rabobank's energy experts have increased their forecasts for the winter curve and risk ranges of European gas prices due to prolonged Hormuz disruptions and low storage levels. The bank now predicts that the TTF (Title Transfer Facility) price will reach €72/MWh in Q4 2026, up from previous estimates. This revised forecast takes into account slower recovery of Qatari LNG supply than initially expected.

The experts also warn that further infrastructure curtailments could push TTF prices into the €50-60/MWh range for much of next year. However, they maintain their overall view that European gas prices will ease to the mid-€40s in 2027. The bank's analysts point out that low storage levels will need to be replenished at a faster rate next year, keeping prices elevated.

As explained in Rabobank's previous energy report, damage to critical infrastructure such as the Yamal LNG terminal would drive gas markets back into price ranges last seen in 2022. This could happen if lasting damage is inflicted on this facility or other key energy facilities in the region.