Railroads Anticipate Strong Corn Demand Despite Smaller Crop Forecast

Despite a smaller crop forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year, U.S. railroads expect strong corn demand, signaling continued heavy grain movement. According to USDA projections, the second-largest corn harvest on record is expected, at 15.8 billion bushels, down 7% from last year's record but 4% above the five-year average.

Most major railroads are raising corn tariffs by roughly $200 to $225 per car, while BNSF is cutting selected rates to Mexico, potentially shifting some Illinois corn traffic away from Union Pacific. Western Corn Belt rail demand could ease from last year as production declines in Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

Export demand remains strong, with commitments totaling about 685 million bushels by September 10, including 262 million to Mexico. Black Sea disruptions could create additional opportunities for U.S. corn. Strong corn demand should keep rail capacity important even as this year's crop falls below last year's record.