Rapeseed Prices Drop in Ukraine Amid Export Disruptions and Global Supply Pressure
Rapeseed prices in Ukraine are under significant pressure due to a combination of factors, including cheaper sunflower prices and the ongoing disruptions to exports caused by attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships. The latest incident involved damage to an oil extraction plant in Chornomorsk, where a fire broke out and operations were halted. Additionally, several ships leaving Danube ports were hit, further complicating the export situation. These challenges are reducing demand for raw materials from processors, keeping prices for sunflower, soybeans, and rapeseed under pressure.
Globally, favorable weather in Canada has accelerated the canola harvest, removing speculative premiums from quotes. The market is also facing pressure from high supply this season, although prices were previously supported by supply delays. November canola futures in Winnipeg fell 2% to CAD 819/t or $575/t, marking a 2.4% month-on-month decline. Experts anticipate further pressure on quotes, especially if oil prices consolidate below $100/barrel due to increased supplies from the Persian Gulf.
In Europe, November rapeseed futures in Paris dropped by 3.5% to €537.5/t or $602/t, a 2.7% decrease over the week. This decline is attributed to increased supply and deliveries from both Ukraine and European producers. Despite this, Ukraine's rapeseed exports remained robust in September, with 428.7 thousand tons exported, up from 292.6 thousand tons in August. Processors in Ukraine have largely stopped processing rapeseed, shifting focus to sunflower, which is currently priced at UAH 17,500-19,000/t compared to rapeseed's UAH 19,000-20,000/t.
Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remained stable at $500-520/t, with delivery to Danube ports and western border terminals. However, supply from farmers remains limited as they prioritize harvesting late crops and postponing rapeseed sales. Demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed delivered to the port of Constanta in Romania decreased by $10-15/t to $575-580/t. Prices for delivery to processing plants in the Czech Republic and Germany also fell by €10/t to €510-535/t under the pressure of falling stock market quotes.