RBC Sticks to $5,000 Gold Price Target Despite Market Volatility

RBC Capital Markets remains bullish on gold despite the recent selloff, sticking to its high-conviction view that gold will spend most of this year in the $4,500-$5,000/oz range.

The bank's forecast for a year-end price of $4,929/oz and an average of $5,296/oz in 2027 remains unchanged. RBC attributes its bullish stance to investor and central-bank flows underpinning gold prices.

Gold prices fell sharply on Tuesday, hitting a two-week low, as US Treasury yields rose sharply, the Dollar strengthened, and markets lifted the probability of a September Fed hike to around 66%. However, RBC argues that stress in the US Treasury market is actually 'a bigger positive for gold, outweighing the potential impact of current elevated yields'.

RBC notes that investor flows have turned bullish again, with gold-backed ETP inflows surging since mid-July and particularly quickly through August. The bank expects 208 tonnes of net ETP inflows in 2026.