Record US Heat Fails to Lift Natural Gas Prices

The recent record heat in the US did not translate to higher natural gas prices. Despite the Lower 48 experiencing its hottest July on record, the Henry Hub natural gas averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August, 6% below the same period last year.

Average temperatures reached 77°F in July, according to NOAA, leading to increased electricity demand as air conditioners ran harder. However, solar and wind power took a significant share of this extra power demand.

Solar generation increased by an estimated 19.4 billion kilowatt-hours from June through August compared to the same period in 2025, while wind generation added another 9.3 BkWh. In contrast, natural gas-fired generation increased by only 7.5 BkWh.

The increase from wind and solar was nearly four times that of natural gas-fired generation during the summer. Gas supply also ran ahead of last year, with US dry natural gas production averaging a 2% increase, reaching 2.7 billion cubic feet per day more from June through August.