Report Estimates Alberta Separation from Canada Would Cost $100B-$170B
The University of Calgary has released a report on the costs of Alberta separating from Canada. The report was commissioned by Premier Danielle Smith's government and estimates that separation would cost between $100 billion to $170 billion, with some scenarios seeing a drop in Alberta's GDP by as much as 16.2%.
The report considers two scenarios: one where the federal government makes concessions and another where Ottawa takes a hard line on negotiations. In the smooth-transition scenario, an independent Alberta could prosper, with a long-term gross domestic product rate 3.4% higher than if it stayed in Canada.
The report also lists 'opportunities' for Alberta should it choose to separate, including its oilsands not being subject to environmental policies and its health system being free to pursue private options. However, the hardline-Ottawa scenario sees substantial government deficits, higher taxes, lower employment, and lower wages.
The report's authors note that separating from Canada would involve far more than just drawing new borders and building a new state. It would completely change how public services, trade, taxes, and laws work.