Retail Investors Bet Against Oil Surge Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions

International oil prices have surged to their highest levels since May due to concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, sending crude oil exchange-traded funds (ETFs) up nearly 27% in a month. However, retail investors have taken the opposite side of the trade, pouring ₩87.2 billion into inverse products that bet on falling oil prices.

The KODEX WTI Crude Oil Futures (H) ETF rose 27.12% over the past month to rank first among 28 commodity-sector ETFs, while TIGER Crude Oil Futures Enhanced (H) climbed 25.76%. In contrast, retail investor capital moved in the opposite direction, with a net outflow of ₩11.1 billion from KODEX WTI Crude Oil Futures (H) and a net inflow of ₩87.2 billion into the inverse product.

The surge in oil prices was driven by concerns over supply disruptions, including the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline after it was damaged in an attack. Analysts warn that even if the pipeline is eventually repaired, the prolonged outage could amplify the supply shock and lead to further price increases.