Risk Premium Keeps Oil Prices Elevated Despite Export Recovery
Crude oil prices remain elevated despite the recovery of Middle East exports to pre-attack levels, thanks to a large risk premium, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby.
The analyst noted that Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to their 2025 average of 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, following a significant increase in September. This recovery was despite an attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline and the ongoing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab strait.
The rebound is attributed to higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers. Goldman estimates that crude exports accounted for nearly 90% of the September recovery in Persian Gulf exports, reaching 19mb/d (108% of their 2025 average) over the last week.
The UAE also exported above its 2025 average, while Saudi exports more than doubled to 11.6 million barrels per day in September. Interestingly, satellite data showed no seaborne crude or main refined product exports from Iran during the month.