Gold and silver prices are expected to trade within a range with a slight positive bias in the upcoming week. The weakening rupee is likely to cushion domestic bullion against global price fluctuations, while inflation data from India, China, and the US will influence investor sentiment. Analysts will also monitor trade data from Beijing and speeches from Federal Reserve officials to gauge whether the US central bank will hike rates in October or delay it until December.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, noted that the outlook remains range-bound with a mildly positive undertone due to the rupee's weakness. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery rose ₹1,109, or nearly 1%, last week to settle at ₹1.51 lakh per 10 grams. Silver, however, ended marginally lower by ₹122 to ₹2.25 lakh per kilogram.
The recovery in MCX gold was supported by a softer US dollar, easing bond yields, and improved geopolitical sentiment. A decline in crude oil prices also eased immediate inflation concerns, while the rupee's weakness provided additional support to domestic bullion. Trivedi explained that a weaker rupee increases the landed cost of imported bullion, helping MCX gold remain supported even when international prices face pressure.
Overseas markets saw Comex gold futures for December delivery gain $54, or 1.3%, last week to close at $4,216.3 per ounce, while silver rose over 1% to $61.05 per ounce. Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President at JM Financial Services Ltd., noted that gold futures ended with a weekly gain of more than 1%, recovering from around $4,066 to above $4,200 per ounce. Most of the gains came in the last two trading sessions as the dollar consolidated and US Treasury yields pared some recent gains.
Silver also recovered in the last two sessions, drawing support from gold and positive momentum in industrial metals. However, the upside was capped by concerns that high prices could weaken demand and expectations of a market supply surplus in 2027. Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the unresolved US-Iran conflict, remains another factor influencing bullion prices.
Analysts suggest that the interplay of currency movements, US rate expectations, geopolitical developments, and investment demand will determine whether bullion sustains its recent recovery or remains confined to a range in the next week.