Russia Cuts Wheat Export Forecast as Black Sea Disruptions Persist

Russian grain exporters are facing significant challenges due to ongoing disruptions in the Black and Azov Seas, with normalization not expected until at least 2027. As a result, SovEcon has revised its forecast for Russia's wheat exports in the 2026/27 season downwards by 4.7 million tons to 36.7 million tons, the lowest level since 2021/22.

Compared to last season, Russian wheat exports could decline by around 20% from 46 million tons. The forecast for total grain exports was also lowered from 49.4 million tons to 44.7 million tons. However, export estimates for barley and corn remain unchanged at 3 million tons each.

Russia is turning to alternative routes to compensate for lost Black Sea capacity. Rail shipments in September were estimated at around 1 million tons, while transshipment through Baltic countries' ports could rise by 60% to 0.4 million tons. Shipments through Russian Baltic and Caspian ports and the Volga-Don Canal are also increasing.