Russia Faces Grain Export Crunch as Port Capacity Constrains Exports

Russia's grain export potential is facing significant constraints due to reduced capacity at Azov and Black Sea ports. This has sharply limited the country's traditional grain export routes, leaving it with a surplus of unsold grain.

According to estimates from ProZerno, Russia could be left with 20-30 million tons of grain that cannot be sold in the current season. With a crop of around 140 million tons, the country's grain export potential is estimated at 59 million tons, but without an improvement in southern port operations, exports may reach only around 39 million tons.

The grain surplus is already putting downward pressure on domestic prices, with grain prices in southern Russia falling to around 4,000-5,000 rubles per ton. This has forced some farmers to sell at a loss, and market participants warn that without an export recovery, large carryover stocks could spill into the next season.