Russia Pivots Grain Exports Amid Black Sea Decline

Russia is scrambling to reroute its grain exports after shipments through the Black Sea plummeted, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service. In the second 10-day period of September, Russia exported just 347,000 metric tons of wheat via the Black Sea, a sharp decline from 1.3 million tons in the same period of 2025. Shipments through the key port of Novorossiysk dropped to 72,500 tons from 696,000 tons a year earlier.

To compensate, Russia is exploring alternative routes, including Baltic and Arctic ports, as well as overland shipments to China. The Ultramar terminal at Ust-Luga received requests for about 260,000 tons of grain in September, but the Baltic route can handle only around 500,000 tons per month at full capacity. Meanwhile, the northern route through Murmansk is also being tested, though transporting grain to the Arctic port adds an estimated $18, $25 per ton in costs.

Overland shipments to China have surged, with volumes through the New Land Grain Corridor increasing from 2.3 million tons in 2024 to 5.8 million in 2025, and an expected 9 million tons this year. However, this route faces limitations, including rail and terminal capacity, tariffs, Chinese quotas, and phytosanitary requirements.

The Ukrainian intelligence service concluded that while Russia can redirect some grain exports, it cannot replicate the scale of its southern ports, which handled nearly 90% of its seaborne grain exports last year.