Russia Redirects Grain Exports Amid Black Sea Collapse

Russia is scrambling to reroute its grain exports following a significant drop in shipments through the Black Sea. According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, Moscow is exploring alternatives such as the Baltic Sea, northern ports, and China. However, these new routes face capacity limits, high transportation costs, and logistical hurdles.

In the second ten-day period of September, Russia exported only 347,000 tonnes of wheat via the Black Sea, a sharp decline from 1.3 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. The port of Novorossiysk, a key grain export hub, handled just 72,500 tonnes, down from 696,000 tonnes a year earlier. Russia is now diverting some shipments to the Ultramar terminal in Ust-Luga, which has begun accepting grain via rail. Even at full capacity, this route can only manage about 500,000 tonnes per month, far below the 60 million tonnes annual capacity of Russia's southern ports.

The country is also exploring the Murmansk route, despite its high costs. Russian Railways approved the first shipment of 40,000 tonnes from Stavropol Krai, but additional expenses range from $18 to $25 per tonne. In the east, Russia is increasing grain shipments to China through the 'New Overland Grain Corridor', which rose from 2.3 million tonnes in 2024 to 5.8 million tonnes in 2025, with expectations of 9 million tonnes in 2026. However, this route also faces restrictions, including infrastructure limitations and Chinese quotas.

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine notes that Russia cannot quickly replace the Black Sea system due to insufficient capacity in the Baltic, Murmansk, and Chinese routes. Estonia has further complicated matters by banning the transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through its territory.