Russia Slashes Gas Output Forecasts Amid Ukraine War

Russia's economy ministry has revised down its natural gas production and export forecasts for this year due to the ongoing war with Ukraine, according to a draft government document seen by Reuters. The country is expected to produce 683.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2023, which is 5.3 billion cubic meters below the May projection. This output is still higher than the 662.7 billion cubic meters produced in 2022.

The ministry also expects Russia's seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to rise to 35 million tonnes this year, up from 30.3 million tonnes in 2022. However, this is still 5.3 million tonnes lower than previously expected. LNG exports are seen continuing to increase in the coming years but at a slower pace.

The revised forecasts come as Europe prepares to wind down its final Russian gas purchases. Russia's gas exports to Europe tumbled 44% last year to just 18 billion cubic meters, the lowest since the mid-1970s following the closure of the Ukrainian transit route.