Russian Gas Exit Redraws Europe's Gas Pricing Map

Russian gas transit through Ukraine ended in early 2025, fundamentally altering European gas flows and supply routes. The end of Russian pipeline supplies shifted gas towards northwestern Europe and Poland, creating a persistent pricing hierarchy across the continent.

According to an Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) report, French trading hub TRF, Belgium's ZTP, the Dutch TTF benchmark, and Britain's NBP have consistently become Europe's cheapest markets. Germany's THE trades at a modest premium, while prices rise progressively further east.

The report notes that this pricing pattern reflects a structural shift rather than a temporary market disruption. From April 2025, gas flows produced a lasting change in convergence, with prices across European hubs continuing to move largely in tandem but the gap between western and eastern hubs becoming more persistent.

The new pricing structure also reflects Europe's growing dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Russian pipeline supplies dwindled. Large volumes of LNG now enter Europe through terminals in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Britain before being transported inland.