Russian Grain Exports Hit by Black Sea Attacks, Government Scrambles for Solutions

Russian farmers and market analysts expressed skepticism about government measures to maintain grain exports. The government wants to reroute some exports, scrap the grain export duty until the end of the year, buy grain for state stocks, grant railroad transport subsidies, and loan extensions to producers.

The proposed measures are unlikely to significantly support Russian grain exports or domestic prices, said Sovecon's Andrey Sizov. He called for a permanent rather than temporary abolition of the export duty, which has been a major irritant for Russian farmers since its introduction in 2021.

Analysts suggested using alternative routes such as the Baltic Sea and Caspian Sea for grain exports, but this would add $30 to $50 per metric ton to cargoes. The People's Farmer lobby called on the government to cut the winter sowing area this year to cope with the oversupply of wheat.