Russian Oil Exports Hit Lowest Level Since 2018 Amid Ukrainian Strikes and Sanctions
In August 2026, Russia's seaborne exports of crude oil and oil products dropped to their lowest level since 2018, marking a 6.1% decline from July and a 12.4% year-on-year decrease to 4.9 million barrels per day (mb/d). Crude oil shipments fell by around 9% to 3.8 mb/d, while oil product exports rose by 4.6% to 1.1 mb/d, though they remained roughly 50% below the 2025 average.
Overall, Russia's total crude oil and oil product exports decreased by 410 kb/d from July and by 840 kb/d year-on-year to 6.4 mb/d. Despite higher prices, export revenues only increased by $0.3 billion both month-on-month and year-on-year to $13.9 billion. Ukrainian strikes have severely impacted Russia's refining sector, with refinery throughput falling to 3.7 mb/d in July, the lowest in over 20 years. The KSE Institute expects throughput to recover to an average of around 4 mb/d for the remainder of 2026 and throughout 2027, citing sanctions that restrict access to spare parts and specialist equipment.
The sharpest decline in exports was observed at Black Sea ports, where crude oil exports fell by 55.9% compared with July and by 53.1% year-on-year. Oil product exports declined by 52.1% and 79.2%, respectively. In August, 168 loaded shadow fleet tankers departed Russian ports or received Russian oil through ship-to-ship transfers, with 92% of them over 15 years old. As of September 25, 687 unique oil tankers had been collectively sanctioned by the US, UK, EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, with Australia sanctioning another 38 tankers on September 24.
India and China remained the primary buyers of Russian crude oil. India reduced imports by 24% in August to around 2 mb/d, while China increased purchases by 18% to 1.65 mb/d. Turkey saw an increase in Russian crude imports to 204 kb/d, though imports of Russian oil products fell to 127 kb/d, the lowest level observed. In September, Russia began shipments through a new Arctic export route, transporting around 1 million barrels of crude at the Sever Bay Oil Terminal. Prices for Russian crude oil and oil products increased in August, with average Urals FOB prices rising by around $9/bbl to $66/bbl and ESPO FOB Kozmino increasing by around $6/bbl to $73/bbl.