Russia's Black Sea Grain Export Losses Only Partially Offset by Baltic and Caspian Routes

Russia's grain export losses through its southern Black Sea ports have been partially offset by alternative routes, but not enough to mitigate the overall decline. According to Rosselkhozbank, only about 25% of the loss has been made up through the Baltic and Caspian regions.

The bank estimates that the share of Azov-Black Sea ports in Russian grain exports could fall by 18 percentage points to 63% in 2026. In contrast, the Baltic region has absorbed a larger portion of the additional volumes, with its share rising by 9 percentage points to 13%. The Caspian route gained about 3 percentage points and now accounts for around 8% of shipments.

Rosselkhozbank forecasts that Russia's grain harvest will be down from 141 million tons last year to 135 million tons in 2026. At the same time, exports could fall from 49 million to 40 million tons, leading to a buildup of grain on the domestic market.