Russia's Black Sea Grain Exports Cut by Half Amid Ongoing Ukraine Strikes

Russia's grain export machine has been severely impacted by Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea port infrastructure. According to SovEcon, Russian wheat shipments in July to September are tracking at around 5.6 million metric tons, down from 11.3 million tons in the same period a year earlier.

The decline directly results from the string of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes since mid-year. Shipments from ports on the Sea of Azov stopped entirely in mid-July, and by mid-August, strikes had knocked out most deep water terminals at Novorossiysk, Russia's largest Black Sea grain hub.

Russia is racing to build alternative pipelines for its grain, with Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut stating that 'millions of tons of Russian grain are already being shipped' through Baltic and Caspian Sea ports. Moscow is also in talks with Beijing about transiting grain through Chinese territory for onward sale into Southeast Asia.