Russia's Grain Exports Hit Hard as Main Terminals Remain Shut

The Russian grain market is facing significant losses due to the shutdown of main terminals in the Azov-Black Sea basin, which accounts for 88% of Russia's maritime grain exports. The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (FISU) reported on August 25 that purchase prices have collapsed and export plans have fallen through.

According to FISU, fourth-class wheat in the south has seen a 19% price decline over the past week, with the August export forecast reduced from 3.1 million tons to 1.8 million tons. The price drop has also affected other regions, with grain in the central part of Russia losing around 8% and in the Volga region 3%.

The FISU warns that the 2026 harvest could reach 140 million tons, while wheat export forecasts for the 2026/27 season have been lowered to 44.6 million tons. This is expected to lead to an accumulation of unsold grain at elevators, rising storage costs, and forced sales at deflated prices, particularly affecting farms with limited storage capacity.