Russia's Grain Exports Plummet Amid Logistical Issues

Russia's grain exports are expected to plummet in the first quarter of the 2026/27 agricultural year, according to Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of Russian analytical firm ProZerno. He forecasts a sharp decline to about 8.5 million metric tons from July through September, compared to 14 million metric tons during the same period last year.

The main reasons for this decrease are the shutdown of several major transshipment facilities in Novorossiysk and changes in buyer demand. Petrichenko notes that Iran has become the main buyer due to the Caspian route's operation, but its demand is mostly for corn and barley, with little wheat.

This shift creates a significant problem for Russia, which relies heavily on wheat exports. Wheat exports are forecast at 4.8 million metric tons, down from 10.6 million metric tons a year earlier. Corn and barley exports are also expected to decline.